Casey – Australia 2028

Labor was invisible in this seat while the Liberals, Greens and Teal were everywhere. It feels like despite the small margin Labor has put this in the too hard basket. Liberal hold in 2028 unless something goes completely wrong again.

Fun Fact on 2021 Census results this seat had the lowest % of voters who are renters of all electorates in the country. I dont think Labor will target this seat. La Trobe which is rapidly diversifying is a better longer term target than Casey

Despite the fact that Labor hold the state seat of Monbulk in the south of Casey, I suspect that Labor have little or no ground game in Casey. They put up a 2nd or 3rd tier candidate in 2019 and 2022, and Naomi Oakley was parachuted in from Manningham in 2025. The margin belies how weak Labor are.

Monbulk is quite different from the rest of Casey especially the Evelyn part. Monbulk is quite socially progressive and different from the Lilydale area which is Anglo tradies and more Conservative. I often compare the Dandneongs to the Blue Mountains and the rest of the seat to seat to Hawkesbury which is why i call this seat the Macquarie of Victoria.

I think Labor overlooked or ignored this seat in 2025 because they were supposedly on the defensive statewide. They were also targetting Deakin and Menzies and probably didn’t want their hands full. Dutton and the Liberals thought that Jacinta Allan and Vic Labor’s unpopularity would translate to easy seat gains.

@ Votante
Casey is demographically very different to Menzies, Deakin even Aston despite neighbouring all 3 seats reasons below.
1. Menzies has a large Chinese community which is probably the reason it was won. It is swing was quite small but enough considered it became notionally Labor.
2. Deakin is quite socially progressive for a middle Australia seat it nearly voted for the voice and voted for the Republic. It has a high % of Public servents
3. Aston even without the by-election was easier to pick up than Casey considering it more of a cohesive seat, more urban and also more diverse
4. Casey has a lot of the demographics that Dutton and even One Nation appeals to namely a lot of Anglo tradies, small farmers etc. It is more rural and with a lot of closely knit small townships it is easier fot a sitting member to build a personal brand than the 3 other neighbouring seats.
5. While Monash also was marginal and had no sitting member i think the seat has a long term drift away from Labor so it was not a target seat.

The eastern parts of Aston and Deakin are very much like Casey. Places like Ferntree Gully, Boronia, The Basin, Croydon. The Western parts less so – Wantirna, Ringwood, and especially the Whitehorse parts of Nunawading and Mitcham are not like Casey at all.
The area around Boronia and Ferntree Gully actually used to be in the old seat of La Trobe along with the southern part of Casey.

@ Adam
The Eastern parts of Aston and Deakin are like Casey but they are like the Urban parts of Casey not the rural ones. I agree Boronia and FTG were in La Trobe which actually helped Labor win La Trobe in 2010. However, on current boundaries Labor would not have won La Trobe

I agree that Casey is generally conservative outside the Dandenong Ranges and the south-western part. The Dandenong Ranges (including Ferntree Gully and Upper Ferntree Gully in Aston) is socially progressive and has a tree-changer demographic which favours teal and Green candidates.

I don’t see Labor targetting either Monash or Casey despite their low margins. It’s because Labor will be on the defensive next election.

Good points regrading eastern parts of Aston and Deakin being similar urban parts of Casey however I think those two areas are gradually becoming less similar (especially the eastern parts of Aston) where there has been densification around the train stations which meant was a growth of professionals and public sector working moving in for cheaper and newer housing.